Welcome Bonus ROI Calculator
Is that 80,000 MR for $8,000 spend in 6 months actually a good deal? Plug in the offer and we'll show you first-year net value, the effective cashback rate, and the monthly spend needed to hit the bonus on time.
Bonus details
Result
Net first-year value
+$705
Bonus value $1,600 − AF $895
Effective cashback
20.0%
Bonus $ ÷ required spend.
Monthly pace needed
$1,333
$8,000 remaining
Excellent offer. Hit the spend, collect the bonus.
Effective cashback % is the gold standard for comparing offers: a 15%+ effective rate is excellent, 5–15% is normal, under 5% likely loses to a 2% cash-back card.
FAQ
What's a good first-year ROI on a welcome bonus?
We use effective cashback rate (bonus dollar value ÷ required spend) as the comparison metric. 15%+ effective cashback is excellent — sweet-spot welcome offers like Amex Plat 175k or Hilton Aspire 175k routinely hit this. 8-15% is strong. 5-8% is average — comparable to a no-AF cashback card. Under 5% is below typical and a 2% flat-cashback card likely beats it.
What value should I use for points?
Use a sober estimate, not the headline cpp you've seen on r/awardtravel. Transferable currencies (Amex MR, Chase UR, Citi TYP) average 1.5-2.5¢ for normal redemptions; sweet-spots can hit 3-5¢ but only for the right routes. Hotel programs: Hilton ~0.5¢, Marriott ~0.75¢, Hyatt ~1.8¢. Airline programs vary widely — Delta ~1.2¢, Alaska ~1.7¢ on partner awards.
Why isn't the annual fee in the cashback math?
Effective cashback compares bonus value to required spend — it's the right metric for 'should I take this card for the bonus?' Net first-year value (separate from effective cashback) is what factors in the AF. A card with a 15% effective cashback rate and an $895 AF is still net-positive if the bonus dollar value exceeds the AF; the cashback metric tells you whether the bonus is worth the *spend friction*.
Do you save my inputs?
No. This page is browser-only. Nothing leaves your device. The PointsCraft iOS app's welcome-bonus tracker (#24) keeps a persistent record of every in-flight bonus you're chasing across cards, with deadline notifications at 14 days and 1 day out.