Annual Fee Break-even Calculator
Should you renew that premium card? Plug in the annual fee, the credits you'll honestly use, and the points you'll earn. The verdict scales with the fee — a $50 net on an $895 card is borderline, not a win.
Anonymous. No login. Nothing saved. Different from the Welcome Bonus ROI calculator — that one answers year 1; this one answers year 2 onward.
Verdict
+$325 / year net
Borderline
Net positive but only just. Worth a hard look at whether a retention offer or downgrade gets you to a better outcome.
Credits used
$500
Points value (rewards)
$720
Annual fee
−$895
3-year cumulative
+$975
Credits to break even
$175
You're already above break-even. The card pays for itself with $175 in credits + your current $720 in points value.
FAQ
How is this different from the Welcome Bonus ROI calculator?
The Welcome Bonus ROI calculator answers the year-1 question — "is this card worth applying for given the signup bonus?" This one answers the year-2-and-beyond question — "should I renew?" Once the signup bonus is gone, only the recurring credits + ongoing earning math matter. Most premium cards look great year 1 because of the bonus; the renewal decision is the harder one.
What should I count as a "credit I'll actually use"?
Only count credits where you'd have spent money on that thing anyway. A $200 hotel credit you'll use on a hotel you were already booking = $200. A $300 SoulCycle credit you'd never otherwise pay for = $0, even if you technically use it. The credit is only "value" if it displaced cash you would have spent. Be honest — overestimating credits is the most common way users convince themselves to renew a card they should cancel.
What cpp valuation should I use?
Default is 1.8¢ — a reasonable average for Amex MR, Chase UR, and Capital One Miles when you transfer to partners. For 1¢ flat-cash-back cards use 1.0¢. For Hyatt-heavy users on Chase UR you can push to 2.0¢. For programs with weaker transfer options (Citi TYP, dynamic-priced hotels), use 1.4-1.6¢. The Points Valuations Table on this site lists per-program ranges.
Should I include retention offers in the math?
Not in the calculator itself — the verdict is for the card at sticker AF, since that's what you'll pay if no retention is offered. But if your verdict comes back "Borderline" or "Consider downgrade," calling the bank to ask about retention is the obvious next step. A $200 statement credit retention on an $895 AF effectively flips a "Borderline" into an "Easy keep."
What about the points I earn on welcome bonuses or referrals later?
Don't include them in steady-state break-even. Bonuses are one-time; this tool models the question "if I keep this card going forward, what does the math look like every year?" Recurring earning (your regular spend × the card's multiplier) is the right input.
Why does the verdict scale with AF?
Because a $50/yr net positive on a no-fee card is meaningful (infinite ROI) but a $50/yr net positive on an $895 card is borderline (6% return on the fee). The verdict thresholds use net-as-percentage-of-AF: above 150% of AF = easy keep, 50%–150% = keep, 0%–50% = borderline, −50%–0% = consider downgrade, below −50% = cancel.